Sunday, April 24, 2011

MN DFL Ungerrymander

Editor's Note: First posted at the SwingStateProject on April 3rd, 2011.

Here's what I call an ungerrymander that ends up benefitting the DFL. The metro seats get compacted and the map turns into a four metro/four Greater MN map. The new MN-6 (grey) does contain a lot of the population within the metro so it could be classified as both. This map should eliminate John Kline and it also doesn't hurt Paulsen too much but his district is now in better position to slip from underneath him over the decade. If Bachmann runs, which seems likely if she doesn't become the Presidential nominee, this map probably would result in a 4/4 female/male delegation and 6/2 DFL/GOP. If state sen. Bonoff runs and beats Paulsen, 5/3 female/male and 7/1 DFL.

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MN-1 Blue
Tim Walz (DFL)
52/45.5 (51/47)
Get's a little more safe for Walz and if he can survive 2010 against a tier 1.5 opponent, then he should be fine.

MN-7 Orange
Collin Peterson (DFL)
48/50 (47/50)
Good thing he owns a plane. And a point more safe to boot by trading central MN counties and going from border to border.

MN-8 Purple
OPEN
56/43 (53/45)
Rep. Cravaack's exurban areas of Isanti and Chisago Counties are given to the new MN-6 which is more favorable for the GOP but also is where Bachmann could run. These two counties get swapped out for the city of St. Cloud so now former state sen. and MN-6 2010 loser, Tarryl Clark, can run here. If it were Clark vs Cravaack, she'll annihilate him.

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MN-6 Grey
Rep. Cravaack
40/58 (45/53)
This becomes a Republican vote sink for the state and combines all the exurban and heavily conservative rural territory surrounding the Twin Cities. Cravaack could win, but if Bachmann wants to run for a seat, she'll run here and she will win.

MN-2 Cyan
Rep. Kline
52/46 (48/50)
Kline's seat loses all of it's exurban and rural territory as it becomes a strictly south metro district, making this seat 8% more DFL. He is much more in line with Bachmann than with Paulsen so he has the wrong profile for this district. And state sen. Katie Sieben has been widely talked about moving up someday as she's only in her 30's and represents a swing'ish state senate district.

MN-3 Green
Rep. Paulsen
53/46 (52/46)
Paulsen got off pretty lucky as his district needed to pick up more territory and the suburbs his district would then include are all GOP leaning. The district does border the city of Minneapolis now, so everything west of the city lines are included, which make the district 1% more in our favor. I could have swapped back in Bloomington and given Kline the Carver County suburbs, but this looks prettier and keeps the map more directional.

MN-5 Yellow
Rep. Ellison
72/26 (74/24)
District now is the city of Minneapolis and the north metro.

MN-4 Red
Rep. McCollum and Rep. Bachmann
63/35 (64/34)
Includes Bachmann's home, but I highly doubt she'd run here as MN-6 is winnable and includes most of her old territory. The district loses some of it's southern suburbs and shifts more into a St. Paul+NE metro district.

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